The Battle of Kursk was a desperate 'grey rhino'

Direct News: The Battle of Kursk has once again drawn people's attention to the Russian Ukrainian battlefield. The cross-border attacks launched by Ukraine have brought about a new change in the situation on the battlefield. How to study and judge the nature of the Kursk campaign, whether it has had a huge impact on the entire Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Special commentator Wu Wei: Kursk was once a battleground, and the famous Battle of Kursk broke out on the Eastern Front of the European theater during World War II in July 1943. Both the Soviet Union and Germany deployed a total of 2.68 million soldiers and over 6000 tanks, making it the largest tank battle in human history and the last strategic gamble by Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union on the Eastern Front. After this battle, the German army lost the initiative on the Eastern Front and launched a large-scale strategic counterattack from Kursk, attacking Berlin along the way.

Yes, turning point is synonymous with Kursk and also the boundary between the rise and fall of famous generals. Time has passed, and when another Battle of Kursk begins, history seems to have played a small joke, but the metaphor is that different paths lead to the same goal: this is another strategic gamble.

In my opinion, the Kursk campaign launched by the Ukrainian army was like a "grey rhinoceros", which broke through the Russian Ukrainian border and changed the nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This bruised "grey rhinoceros" reminds the world in a decisive way that the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict has never been a local war that can be unilaterally described by any "special military action". It is a national war of vital importance for the sovereign and independent country of Ukraine.

I call it the 'Grey Rhino' because the whole world has witnessed the Ukrainian military's troop movements in the direction of Sumy over the past few months. The Russian military headquarters cannot turn a blind eye or a deaf ear to this unusually conspicuous military buildup. But it was some kind of "wishful thinking" that allowed the Ukrainian army to successfully achieve the suddenness of the battle, making the Russian army very passive in the first few days of the battle. The 144th Motorized Infantry Division of the Russian Western Military Region stationed in Kursk did not even have time to deploy its troops, and the hasty evacuation of civilians further highlighted the support of the Russian military command this time.

I still say the same thing: in Moscow's view, this is a "special military operation" limited to Ukrainian territory; But looking at Kiev, this is a full-scale war with no way out. Although the US led NATO has been restraining the Ukrainian side from conducting long-range strikes on Russian soil, who can truly prevent a gradually despairing Kiev regime from taking a desperate gamble on an increasingly unfavorable battlefield?

To some extent, it is precisely because of the continued constraints imposed by the United States and the West on Kiev that Russia has relaxed its vigilance towards the long Russia Ukraine border.

In my opinion, the Battle of Kursk is more like a political battle. It has to some extent reversed the long-term passive situation of the Ukrainian side on the battlefield, boosted the morale of the Ukrainian military and civilians, and also greatly boosted Western society, especially public opinion. A Ukrainian army that fights so resolutely can also win more military assistance from the United States and the West.

But when it comes to military gains and losses, I believe that the traces of military adventure in the Ukrainian army's offensive are too strong. Although the Ukrainian army gradually gained some initiative on the battlefield by launching an offensive, objectively speaking, it was also putting its already struggling living forces into a new direction of the campaign. This will definitely weaken the defensive resilience of the Ukrainian army on the front line of East Ukraine, and if the attack is thwarted, it will also put the Ukrainian army in a greater crisis.

This' Grey Rhino 'battle also shows us Moscow's caution. After Russian President Putin convened an emergency national security meeting, Moscow authorities officially defined the military movements of the Russian military in Kursk as "anti-terrorism military operations". This also largely answers the question of many international relations scholars: will a series of military alliance mutual assistance agreements trigger a "chain reaction" when Russia's mainland is subjected to a military attack? At least from the current situation, the answer is clear: Moscow is also controlling the intensity of the situation and has not defined it as a trigger for a full-scale war that will drag more countries into it.

But the cruel reality also reveals that the long burning Russia-Ukraine conflict is getting out of control. Never assume that it is just a 'storm in a teacup', as its spillover effects are rapidly developing. If the tea in this cup spills out, it can burn many people.

Sketch of the situation on the Kursk battlefield

Direct News: So how do you assess the direction of this battle? What factors determine the key to victory or defeat?

Special commentator Wu Wei: A few years ago, during my interview with Zhu Rihe, a PLA army brigade commander once told me that the development of technology has changed the form of modern warfare, but the core of ground attack still revolves around "channel warfare".

The so-called "channel operation" refers to the rapid advancement of ground forces based on transportation lines with the support of the system. The highway network is the main marching route, and every town connected by highways is every battle node. Looking at the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there are many cases of "channel warfare", and the current Kursk campaign is still like this.

From the perspective of attacking targets, we can see the battle plan; from the perspective of troop deployment, we can see the leader's determination. Based on the recent open source information, the Ukrainian military headquarters has deployed 8 brigades and 4 battalions, totaling approximately 15000 troops, in the direction of Kursk. Four regiments of mobile troops were successively drawn from the directions of Volchansk, Seversk, and Friedar as reserve forces for the campaign. In this sense, the determination of the Ukrainian military headquarters in the battle is very strong.

From the specific execution of the campaign, the core of the Ukrainian army's offensive lies in rapidly developing along the R200 highway towards the major southern Russian city of Kursk, and then occupying strategic facilities such as nuclear power plants, train stations, airports, etc. In the process of rushing along the transportation line, seeking opportunities to develop horizontally towards Kolenevo, in order to expand the width of the battlefield and enhance the depth of the battle.

But the biggest problem facing the Ukrainian army is whether the first Russian town of Suja on the R200 highway can be quickly captured. If a breakthrough cannot be made here, the subsequent logic of "channel warfare" will only be a castle in the air.

At present, the Russian and Ukrainian armies are engaged in fierce attacks and defenses within the city of Suja. Both the attacking and defending sides are very clear that the success or failure of the battle depends first and foremost on the ownership of this town. Six days have passed since the start of the battle, and the Russian front line has not collapsed. The Ukrainian army has also been unable to capture Suja city, allowing the continuation of troops to continue along the highway. The first three days of the battle are crucial because, based on the ammunition supply situation of modern armies, the most intense offensive is during the first three days. In the future, we will face the dilemma of insufficient ammunition and fuel, and barely enough food to sustain ourselves.

From the development of the campaign, the Russian army has already endured the most difficult first three days. At this moment, as the battle continues to progress, the Ukrainian side no longer has the cover of sudden changes in the battle, and the subordinate numbers, force composition, and offensive intentions of the participating troops have been fully exposed. In the absence of battlefield air superiority, the Ukrainian army will face increasingly difficult times in the coming days.

Just a few days into the battle, the Russian army successfully destroyed the frontline command post of the Ukrainian 22nd Mechanized Brigade using Iskander missiles, which posed great difficulties for the Ukrainian main attack force. Similar situations will continue to occur one after another, and the revived Russian army will gradually regain the initiative on the battlefield with advantages such as air superiority and electromagnetic superiority.

At present, the biggest suspense lies in whether the Ukrainian military headquarters will deploy more troops to conduct "refueling" operations in this direction of the campaign. Both sides of the conflict are engaged in an extreme game: whoever finishes their cards first will be trapped in endless passivity.