Finished oil prices rise for the seventh time this year, 92 octane gasoline returns to the '8 yuan era'

Domestic refined oil prices have seen their seventh increase of the year.

On July 11th, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting from 24:00, domestic gasoline prices will increase by 110 yuan/ton and diesel prices will increase by 105 yuan/ton. Converted to an increase in price, 92 octane gasoline, 95 octane gasoline, and 0 octane diesel have all increased by about 0.09 yuan.

The cost of fuel for private car owners and logistics companies will increase. Calculated based on a small private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, filling up one tank of gasoline will cost about 4 yuan more; For large logistics transport vehicles loaded with 50 tons, the average fuel cost increases by about 3.6 yuan per 100 kilometers traveled.

After this round of price adjustments, the prices of car and diesel in most parts of the country are 7.6-7.8 yuan/liter, and the retail price limit for 92 octane gasoline is 8-8.1 yuan/liter, fully returning to the "8 yuan era".

This is the 14th price adjustment of refined oil products in 2024, and also the seventh price increase of the year. After this price adjustment, the 2024 refined oil price adjustment presents a pattern of "seven increases, four decreases, and three suspensions".

According to calculations by Zhuochuang Information, since 2024, the cumulative increase in domestic standard gasoline and diesel prices has been 700 yuan/ton and 675 yuan/ton, equivalent to a cumulative increase of 0.55 yuan for 92 octane gasoline, 0.58 yuan for 95 octane gasoline, and 0.57 yuan for 0 octane diesel.

During this pricing cycle, international crude oil prices fluctuated.

Liu Wenjie, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that although the Atlantic hurricane did not have a significant impact on crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region of the United States, coupled with the positive progress of the Israeli Palestinian peace talks and traders taking profits at high points, the positive support of tight supply still exists. At the same time, the market still looks forward to the prospects of the summer travel peak, and crude oil prices have risen more than fallen.

Overall, during the pricing cycle, the average price of the affiliated oil species has increased, and the corresponding comprehensive change rate of crude oil is running in a positive range, opening the window for this round of retail price increase, "said Liu Wenjie.

Zhuochuang Information's refined oil analyst Zheng Mingya also believes that the expectation of strong demand for refined oil products in the summer, as well as early signs of frequent activity during the Atlantic hurricane season, have jointly driven up international oil prices at the beginning of the third quarter.

As of the early morning of July 11th Beijing time, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for the month rose by 0.85% to $82.1 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.5% to settle at $85.08 per barrel.

International crude oil futures price trend chart Image source: Longzhong Information

The probability of the next round of retail price reduction for refined oil products is relatively high.

Based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustments will show a downward trend at the beginning

Li Yan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, pointed out that looking ahead to the future, the impact of the hurricane in the US Gulf has been eliminated, the negotiations for the ceasefire agreement between Palestine and Israel are progressing smoothly, potential supply risks have weakened, and international oil prices are facing certain high-level downward pressure. It is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustments is relatively high.

Yang Xiaofen, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, also believes that in the short term, international crude oil prices will moderately fall, and the probability of a new round of retail price reductions is relatively high.

Zheng Mingya mentioned that at the beginning of the next cycle, due to the ongoing Middle East negotiations, geopolitical risks are gradually diminishing, limiting the rise in crude oil prices.

It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate, and the rate of change in crude oil may start with negative values. A new round of retail price limits is expected to be temporarily suspended. Due to the long adjustment cycle, there is still uncertainty in the new round of price adjustments, "said Zheng Mingya.

According to the current adjustment cycle of refined oil prices, the next adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 25, 2024.