Liu Heping: Israel's retaliation against Iran is a conspiracy
The picture shows Iran attacking Israel
Direct News: What are your observations on Israel's sudden large-scale retaliatory actions against Iran?
Special commentator Liu Heping: In fact, there is a saying that goes "there is no harm without comparison.". To observe Israel's retaliatory actions against Iran this time, we still need to compare it with Iran's retaliatory actions against Israel three days ago. By comparison, we can find that Israel's retaliatory action this time is somewhat ungrateful.
One is that when Iran retaliated against Israel, it issued a warning to Israel in advance and also made announcements to neighboring countries. And Israel's retaliatory action this time has a somewhat sudden attack flavor. Even in order to make Iran relax its vigilance and vigilance, Israeli Defense Force Chief of Staff Halavi released a smoke bomb to the outside world, urging the Israeli people to have a "normal Passover". Externally, it is interpreted that this means that Israel will not "take action" against Iran until the end of the Passover on April 30th.
Secondly, Iran's retaliatory actions against Israel are not only "publicized in advance", but also "polite". Its typical manifestation is that in terms of strike procedures, Iran first launches unmanned aircraft that take at least six or seven hours to reach Israel's mainland, followed by cruise missiles that take about half an hour to reach, and finally launches the fastest ballistic missile. This is clearly notifying Israel to prepare for interception as soon as possible. However, Israel's pursuit of retaliation against Iran is "lightning fast" and directly targets precision guided missiles. It is precisely for this reason that the outside world only found out that Israel's retaliatory actions had begun after Israeli missiles bombed Iranian land and ignited a huge fireball.
Thirdly, from the perspective of the scope of the attack, Iran is only targeting Israel's homeland, but Israel's retaliatory actions are being fought together by Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Attacking Iran is aimed at the air force base where Iran launched missiles and drones against Israel last time. This is not just a tit for tat, but as I judged last time, Israel wants to target Iran's long-range attack capabilities; Strike against the Iranian military base in the southern province of Suvida in Syria, obviously because this base is used to help Hezbollah attack Israel in Lebanon; According to the Iraqi side, the crackdown on a building in the Iraqi capital Baghdad is due to a high-level meeting being held here between several Iraqi militia groups supported by Iran and members of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard. That is to say, for Israel, retaliation against Iran has no forbidden zone or international legal concept. As long as the military objectives here have value, Israel will not hesitate to strike.
Fourthly, it is worth noting that Israel's strike on Iran's mainland, namely the central cities of Isfahan and Natanz, is also an important base for Iran's research and development of nuclear facilities. However, Israel only targeted the air bases in these two areas with precision, without directly bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. This clearly carries a warning and tells Iran that "your nuclear facilities are not safe" in the event of a full-scale war between Iran and Israel.
In summary, Iran's last retaliatory action against Israel carries the connotation of "false strikes", while Israel's retaliatory action against Iran this time is a real fight in the face of blood, aimed at truly hurting Iran and causing it to suffer real losses.
Direct News: What role did the United States, Britain, and France play in Israel's retaliatory actions against Iran?
Special commentator Liu Heping: I believe that as of now, due to limited information available, there are still several highly analytical mysteries that need to be uncovered regarding Israel's retaliatory actions——
The first question is, last time Israel claimed a 99% interception rate for Iranian missiles and drones, what is the missile interception rate for Iran against Israel this time? And how much damage did Iran suffer in this wave of retaliatory actions by Israel? From this comparative data, we can determine whether Iran has the strength to fight back against Israel and whether it has the ability to engage in full-scale war with Israel in the future.
The second question is whether Israel's recent attack on Iran and Iraq's homeland was carried out through long-range strikes using fighter jets or missiles from Israel's homeland. Since Israel does not border Iran and Iraq, this means that in addition to launching missiles from the sea, Israel's strike actions will inevitably pass through Arab neighboring countries such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Have these neighboring countries opened their airspace to Israel's strike actions? After understanding this information, we can know what kind of stance these countries will take if Iran and Israel really erupt into a full-scale war in the future.
The third question is what role the United States, Britain, and France, especially the United States, played in this Israeli retaliatory action. Because we know that the consequences and costs of Israel's retaliation against Iran will be shared by these countries. So we saw that CNN immediately quoted a senior US official as saying that Israel notified the United States on the same day that it would strike Iran in the coming days, but the US did not support such actions.
The picture shows President Biden delivering a speech
Direct news: In fact, three days ago when Iran retaliated against Israel, Biden had already advised the Netanyahu regime that Israel's 99% interception rate of Iranian missiles and drones was already a victory for Israel. Why does Israel still have to retaliate against Iran in this situation?
Special commentator Liu Heping: I have always insisted that Israel's retaliatory actions against Iran are a strategic decision that must be implemented, rather than an optional tactical decision.
Firstly, we know that the Jewish people not only have the ancient sayings of "tooth for tooth, eye for eye" and "retribution for grievances", but also extremely lack a sense of security. So we see that after the Jewish nation's restoration, ensuring its absolute safety has always been the top priority. Whoever threatens Israel's security, Israel will definitely subdue them. This is why Israel has been willing to go to war with the Arab coalition in the past five Middle East wars. So now, on the surface, it appears that Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Yemeni Hussein armed groups are threatening Israel's security, but behind these armed groups is Iran. Therefore, no matter what measures Israel takes, it will do everything possible to force Iran to the front line and let both sides engage in a real confrontation.
Secondly, I once said that during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Iran supplied a large number of drones and ammunition to Russia, which played a "timely help" role for Russia, which was once in trouble. It is precisely for this reason that NATO, led by the United States, has a grudge against Iran. In this situation, it is actually something that Western countries are happy to see Israel stand at the forefront to challenge and hold Iran back, especially by eliminating Iran's military capability to support Russia.
As for Israel's interception rate of Iranian missiles and drones, which is as high as 99%, this is not only a reason for Israel not to strike Iran, but also a source of Israel's confidence, which makes retaliatory actions even more fearless.
The picture shows the flags of Iran and Israel
Direct news: Will Iran retaliate against Israel in the future? Will Iran and Israel break out into a full-scale war?
Special commentator Liu Heping: I believe that after Israel's retaliatory actions against Iran, the "ball" or initiative has indeed returned to Iran's feet, and Iran has the right to decide whether to fight back next. However, just like the recent missile attack on the Iranian Embassy in Syria, the dilemma has once again been put before Iran.
If there is no retaliation, how can we deal with the rising nationalist sentiment in the country, especially Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Yemeni armed forces, who are all watching us. If there is no retaliation, how will we continue to be the leader and lead the team in the future.
More importantly, for Iran, this is the only thing that matters, which is to ensure political stability within the country and the security of the integrated political and religious regime. If there is to be a full-scale war with Israel, the latter may not be able to survive. Especially when Iran retaliated against Israel last time, before it could finish fighting, Iran announced that the retaliation had ended, which was obviously to calm things down. However, after Israel retaliated against Iran, Israel, which had taken advantage of it, did not say such words. This also means that Israel is not afraid of Iran coming back, or even of a full-scale war with Iran.
As for the Third World War, I believe it was just some Western media sensationalism aimed at exaggerating the so-called threats from Russia and Iran, and even demonizing them. In fact, even if Israel and Iran were to engage in a full-scale war, it would not be possible for the so-called Third World War to break out. Because not only is Russia and Iran closely related, but they have no intention of moving towards alliance, but also Russia is trapped in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and cannot extricate itself from helping Iran. Iran, with limited military strength, has actually been focusing on self-protection, that is, to ensure the stability of its own regime, and will never take the initiative to provoke an all-out war. In this situation, not only could the Third World War not be fought, but even the Sixth Middle East War could not be fought, because Iran found it difficult to find a common military ally in the Middle East region, except for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Hussein armed forces.
