Finished oil prices have risen for the fifth time, and 92 octane gasoline has entered the "8 yuan era"

The retail price limit for domestic refined oil products has ushered in a new round of adjustment.

On April 16th, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting from 24:00, domestic gasoline prices will increase by 200 yuan/ton and diesel prices will increase by 195 yuan/ton. Equivalent to price increases, both 92 octane gasoline and 0 octane diesel have increased by 0.16 yuan, and 95 octane gasoline has increased by 0.17 yuan.

As a result, the costs for private car owners and logistics companies have increased. Based on a small private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, car owners will spend about 8 yuan more on filling up a tank of gasoline; For large logistics transport vehicles with a full load of 50 tons, the average fuel cost increases by about 6.4 yuan for every 100 kilometers traveled.

Jin Lianchuang analyst Ma Jiancai stated that after this price adjustment, China's 92 octane gasoline has fully entered the "8 yuan era" and reached a new high for the year.

This round is the eighth price adjustment of refined oil this year and the fifth increase within the year. After this price adjustment, the 2024 refined oil price adjustment will present a pattern of "five rises, one fall, and two stalls".

The retail price limit for domestic refined oil products has ushered in a new round of adjustment. The picture is a schematic diagram of oil prices (source: Interface Image Library)

After offsetting the rise and fall, the gasoline and diesel standard products rose by 875 yuan/ton and 845 yuan/ton respectively this year. In terms of price increases, 92 octane gasoline, 95 octane gasoline, and 0 octane diesel have increased by 0.7 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 0.72 yuan per liter respectively compared to before the year.

During this pricing cycle, international crude oil prices have continued to rise.

Zhuochuang Information stated that the US inflation data is higher than market expectations, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is further delayed, resulting in a stronger US dollar trend and a bearish suppression of the oil market. However, at the same time, the market concerns caused by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East are repetitive and will continue to support the oil market.

The latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that if OPEC+maintains its current production reduction efforts, crude oil inventories will decline for most of this year and may experience the largest decline in the third quarter. Even if the pace of growth slows down, the IEA predicts that global energy demand will exceed 105 million barrels per day for the first time in the second half of 2025, with the main growth drivers coming from China and India, which is also beneficial for oil prices.

According to Dai Xiangdong, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, due to the continuous upward shift of the international oil price center level, the corresponding crude oil change rate in China is in a positive range, first rising and then fluctuating narrowly.

According to Jin Lianchuang's calculation, as of the tenth working day on April 16th, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 87.75 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of 4.07%.

On April 15th, although Iran's military actions against Israel raised geopolitical concerns, Israel did not respond strongly and international oil prices fell.

As of the early morning of April 16th Beijing time, the WTI May crude oil spot contract closed down 0.25 US dollars per barrel, at 85.41 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.29%. The Brent June crude oil spot contract closed down 0.35 US dollars per barrel, at 90.10 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.39%.

For the domestic market, according to data monitoring by Longzhong, restocking after the Qingming Festival and early entry of some middle and lower reaches into the market as May Day reserves, gasoline demand is expected to improve, and upstream prices have a strong willingness to increase, driving prices up significantly. There is no significant increase in diesel demand, and the price bottom is relatively stable. Market trading has rebounded, and prices have also risen. The increase in retail prices of gasoline and diesel this time has increased the theoretical profit margin of gas stations.

From the recent market shipment situation, the supply has tightened within the month, the weather has warmed up, and the progress of terminal inventory digestion has slightly accelerated; In addition, driven by the strengthening of crude oil cost support and the influence of fear of inflation, the behavior of social units choosing opportunities to replenish their inventories is gradually increasing.

Longzhong Information stated that as the May Day holiday approaches, gasoline consumption is expected to continue to increase. Coupled with current high costs and pre holiday stocking demand, it is expected that there is still some upward space for gasoline prices; Due to the current excess of diesel spot prices, which may form a certain bearish trend, it is expected that although diesel prices will rise in the future, the increase will be limited.

The next round of retail price adjustment or shelving of refined oil products.

According to Li Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, the instability of the geopolitical situation caused by the Iran Israel conflict still exists, and the situation in the Middle East has not brought sustained benefits. In addition, the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and the bearish demand outlook continue to confront each other, and signs of a bearish game reappear. It is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustments being shelved is high.

Zhuochuang Information also believes that international crude oil prices may maintain a high volatility trend in the next cycle, and there is a downside risk. At the beginning of the next round of price adjustment cycle, based on the current crude oil price calculation, the rate of change of crude oil is at a positive low point, and the expectation of being stranded is enveloping the market.

Ma Jiancai stated that due to the ongoing market concerns caused by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, there is still support for the bottom of crude oil in the short term, and the recent trend may consolidate at a high level. There is still uncertainty about the direction of the new round of price adjustments, and the guidance on the news side is limited.

According to the current price adjustment cycle for refined oil, the next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on April 29, 2024.