Shi Hong: What is the truth about Russia and Ukraine claiming to have their own achievements?
Experts believe that high-ranking Ukrainian officials claim that the credibility of Ukrainian troops crossing the Dnieper River is very low
Direct news: Ukrainian high-ranking officials claim that the Ukrainian army crossed the Dnieper River and made a breakthrough on the left bank of Kherson; Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the Ukrainian military has gained initiative in the Black Sea by using unmanned boats alone; British Reuters also reported that the Ukrainian army has made significant progress. May I ask Mr. Shi, is the credibility of what the Ukrainian and British media say high?
Special commentator Shi Hong: The credibility of what the Ukrainian and British media say is very low. The Ukrainian army crossing the Dnieper River to reach the left bank of Kherson was not a recent situation, but began in the summer. However, at that time, the Ukrainian army crossing the river mainly consisted of platoon and company level units, occupying only one foothold on the left bank of Kherson. Now the Ukrainian army crossing the river has formed a battalion level force, occupying three footholds on the left bank of Kherson. However, the Ukrainian army crossing the Dnieper River severely lacked heavy equipment, had extremely poor firepower and mobility, and was greatly limited in logistical supply, which made it impossible for the Ukrainian army on the left bank of Kherson to break through the Russian defense line. On the contrary, the Russian army uses artillery, aviation, drones, patrol missiles and other weapons every day to attack the Ukrainian army that has arrived on the left bank of Kherson, causing a significant loss of vital strength for the Ukrainian army.
As for Zelensky's claim that he obtained the initiative in the Black Sea by using unmanned boats, there are even fewer believers. If unmanned boats are so powerful, there is no need for the world to continue developing expensive and labor-intensive surface vessels and submarines. In fact, the unmanned boats of the Ukrainian army have achieved minimal results in the past two months, but the losses have been very significant. What truly poses a threat to the Russian Black Sea Fleet and has achieved certain results in attack operations is the Ukrainian army's air strike weapons, including air launched cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, drones, etc.
The fact that Wufang now describes the achievements of sesame seeds as the size of watermelons precisely reflects Wufang's anxiety. Because the more than 5 months of major counterattacks not only failed to achieve decent results, but also suffered losses and setbacks, which greatly disappointed the West and led to increasingly negative aid to Ukraine. For Ukraine, without Western aid, it would be powerless to confront Russia. Therefore, in order for the West to continue providing significant assistance to Ukraine, Zelensky and his officials greatly exaggerated the results of the Ukrainian army.
The Ukrainian army's major counterattack on the battlefield has basically stopped
Direct News: What changes have taken place in the current battlefield situation in Ukraine, and for whom?
Special commentator Shi Hong: The biggest change on the Ukrainian battlefield now is that the Ukrainian army's comprehensive counterattack has basically stopped. After entering winter, the Russian army launched a fierce offensive on the entire northern line, including Kupiyansk, Crimina, Liman, Bakhmut, Afjeyevka, and other areas, with the most intense fighting areas being Bakhmut and Afjeyevka. The Russian army has made significant progress by conducting pincer attacks from the north and south wings. Moreover, the Russian army on both the north and south wings continues to expand in depth, increasing the difficulty of the Ukrainian army's counterattack and continuously compressing the Ukrainian army's activity space, gradually tightening the encirclement of the Ukrainian army. In addition, the continuous attacks by the Russian army in Sinkivka in Kupiyansk have increased the pressure on the Ukrainian army to face them.
The Russian army's fierce attack on the northern front forced the Ukrainian army to transfer a large number of troops from the southern line to the northern line. For example, the three Ukrainian brigades equipped with "Leopard 2" tanks have been deployed to the northern line to fight against the Russian army. In this way, the Ukrainian army's counterattack in Zaporoze and Nandonetsk on the southern front became powerless, and many positions were recaptured by the Russian army. Only in the direction of Kherson did the Ukrainian army increase its offensive by adding four Marine Brigades, but the operation of the Dnieper River against the Ukrainian army posed a huge natural obstacle, making the Ukrainian army's river crossing operation only a tactical action and unable to reverse the current overall situation of the Ukrainian army.
The Russian army's fierce attack on the northern line forced the Ukrainian army to withdraw a large number of troops from the southern line to the northern line
Direct News: With the changing situation on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield, what will happen to the US and Western aid to Ukraine next?
Special commentator Shi Hong: Ukraine is now in an increasingly passive situation, and the United States and the West naturally see this very clearly. Therefore, the internal disputes between the United States and the West have become increasingly intense around continuing to provide aid to Ukraine. For example, the EU had previously planned to provide 50 billion euros in economic aid and 20 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine, but recently it was unable to reach an agreement due to increasing opposition. That is to say, the EU's massive economic and military aid plans are currently unable to be implemented. The United States, on the other hand, has put a new package of aid to Ukraine proposed by the US government on hold due to the Republican controlled House of Representatives insisting on a separate vote on aid to Ukraine.
Some analysts believe that the new Palestinian Israeli conflict has taken away the attention of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, making it significantly more difficult for Ukraine to obtain assistance from the United States and the West. In fact, the United States and the West have used their attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an excuse to reduce their pressure on aid to Ukraine. The United States and the West are now well aware that the Ukrainian army is no longer able to defeat the Russian army on the battlefield, and even with the significant depletion of the Ukrainian army's living strength, the source of troops is becoming increasingly depleted. Continuing to fight, the Ukrainian army will only become increasingly passive. In this situation, if a large amount of aid is still provided to Ukraine, it is purely throwing money into the water. Now both the United States and the European Union are reconsidering their aid policies towards Ukraine. The previous words of 'Ukraine needs what we provide; Ukraine supports as long as it fights' have not been spoken out by European and American politicians for several months. After Slovakia changed its government, it quickly stopped providing military aid to Ukraine, which is a clear sign that the United States and the West are feeling tired of providing aid to Ukraine. Moreover, the upcoming 2024 is still the election year for the United States, and Biden's main focus must be on running for re-election. Aid to Ukraine may not be as proactive as before.
