Over ten thousand people died in conflict: a real bloody revenge
On October 28th local time, a special press conference was held in Tel Aviv. This is the first time since October 7th that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has held a press conference to answer questions from journalists. Netanyahu announced that Israeli ground forces have entered the Gaza Strip, beginning the "second phase of the war". He called this Israel's "second independence war" and reminded the Israelis that the war to eradicate Hamas is expected to be "long and difficult".
Accompanying Netanyahu at the press conference were two other members of the wartime cabinet: Israeli Defense Minister Yoyaf Galant and opposition leader of the National Unity Party, Benny Ganz. The live video shows that when Netanyahu stood behind the podium and announced to the world that Israel was increasing its attack on Gaza, Ganz wrapped his arms around his chest in a defensive position.
Since October 27th, Israel has launched its most intense air strike on the Gaza Strip to date, and ground forces have also penetrated more than three kilometers into the northern part of Gaza. Within 48 hours, internet connections and telephone lines in the Gaza Strip were completely disrupted.
Israel insists that it will not agree to a ceasefire. Netanyahu said, "Requesting a ceasefire or demanding Israel to surrender to Hamas, terrorists, or barbaric acts will not happen
At present, this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has resulted in over 10000 deaths on both sides. On October 31st, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, since October 7th, 8525 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have died as a result of Israeli attacks, including 3542 children and 2187 women, and 21543 others have been injured. In addition, at least 119 people died and nearly 2000 were injured in the conflict in the West Bank region of the Jordan River. According to Israeli media reports on October 30th, the conflict has resulted in 1538 deaths on the Israeli side.
On October 30th, buildings bombed by Israel in the northern Gaza Strip emitted thick smoke. Image/Visual China
Bloody revenge
The escalation of the war began after nightfall on October 27th, when internet and telephone connections in Gaza began to be disrupted, and there were speculations that the Israeli army was ready to launch a ground attack on Gaza. Later, a brief statement from the Israeli military confirmed that ground operations were "expanding", but did not provide other details.
Subsequently, the most intense bombing in the new round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has lasted for three weeks. At the same time, the Israeli Defense Forces launched attacks from the northern Gaza towns of Beit Hanoun and the Breji refugee camp, with tanks and armored vehicles carrying infantry and engineers entering Gaza under cover of air strikes and shelling.
On October 30th, the Israeli Defense Forces stated that as Israel continued to increase ground operations in Gaza, dozens of Hamas agents hiding in buildings and tunnels were killed overnight. A fighter jet guided by the Israeli Defense Forces ground forces also attacked a stronghold of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), with approximately 20 armed elements inside the building. In addition, a guided fighter jet attacked the Azhar University area.
In the past few days, Israel has attacked over 600 'terrorist targets', including weapons depots, dozens of anti tank missile launch sites, as well as Hamas hideouts and assembly sites, "the Israeli Defense Forces said in a statement.
The video also shows that an Israeli flag is hanging on the roof of a resort hotel in Gaza, 3 kilometers away from the Israeli border. This also indicates that unlike previous attacks, the Israeli army has remained in Gaza and established temporary strongholds.
This round of attacks also caused damage to the Shifa and Holy City hospitals in Gaza City, as well as to Indonesian hospitals in the northern Gaza Strip. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs pointed out that approximately 117000 displaced persons have sought refuge in 10 hospitals that are still operating in Gaza City and other areas of the northern Gaza Strip, and these hospitals have received repeated evacuation orders in recent days.
The World Health Organization reiterated on social media that "evacuating patients from hospitals is not feasible, it cannot be without endangering their lives
The horror experienced by the Gazans is indescribable, and the civilian population is becoming increasingly desperate. "Lisa Dawton, Director of the Humanitarian Financing Department of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, stated in a statement that in despair, people have to break into UN agencies' warehouses in search of food and water. During this period, some aid supplies from the United Nations World Food Programme were looted in Gaza. The Palestinian refugee relief agency has warned that the "worrying collapse of public order is beginning".
More people die every day, but the end of the war is far away. Mel Erlan, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv National Security Research Institute in Israel, told China News Weekly that the war is still in its early stages and is likely to last longer than any previous war between Palestine and Israel.
The Israeli Defense Forces have repeatedly stated in recent days that the overall goal of the war remains unchanged, which is to eliminate Hamas in one go. However, Israel did not launch a rapid and large-scale attack as initially anticipated. From the attacks on Beit Hanoun and Breji, it appears that this is a strategic plan to gradually surround Gaza. An Israeli military officer, who declined to be named, believed that the ground war could last for months or even a year.
Professor Lorelli Hahn Ereira of the Palestinian Studies Center at the London School of Asia and Africa also stated that unlike Israel's past attacks on Gaza and the Palestinians, this attack on Hamas is a true "bloody retaliation" by Israel.
As Netanyahu told the public through a video on October 30th, "We will throw them (Hamas) into the dustbin of history. This is our goal, this is our responsibility
On October 26th, Palestinians waited to identify the bodies of their loved ones killed in Israeli airstrikes outside a hospital in the southern city of Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip. Image/Visual China
Can we 'eliminate Hamas'?
Israel can launch a ground war, but there is no guarantee that it will end the war in a satisfactory way, "Khalid Khroub, a Middle East scholar at Qatar Northwest University, a Palestinian, told China News Weekly.
Khalid Khroub has conducted in-depth research on the Hamas organization and authored the book "Hamas: Political Thought and Practice". In his view, "eliminating Hamas" is difficult to achieve because the organization has already penetrated into local politics, society, and even religion.
In 2005, Israel completed its withdrawal and ended its 38 year occupation of the Gaza Strip. At that time, Hamas claimed that this was the result of its own fighting, and some groups in the Gaza Strip also referred to Hamas as a "hero of resistance to Israel". So much so that in the January 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections, Hamas won a majority of seats in the Palestinian National Authority's parliament and defeated the Palestinian Liberation Organization (Fatah), which had long led the Palestinian resistance movement.
Since then, Israel has been strategically inclined to maintain internal Palestinian divisions, dividing and governing the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. When Netanyahu regained power in 2009, he also implemented this strategy. The biographer of Netanyahu, Ansel Pfeiffer, stated that Netanyahu was once satisfied with this balance.
Gazans and Palestinians in the West Bank can deeply feel this isolation. This summer, Zhao Zihan, a Chinese international student at Harvard University, participated in a training event organized by the World Health Organization in the West Bank of Jordan, with several students from Gaza among them. Her classmates in Gaza told her that this was their first time leaving Gaza in over 20 years of life. Although they were both Palestinians, they had no knowledge of the situation in the West Bank.
Zhao Zihan told China News Weekly that she clearly remembers a sentence that Gaza medical student Faha said to her: "Previously, I thought only Gazans lived in open-air prisons, and compatriots on the West Bank could live a relatively peaceful life - I didn't expect them to live the same way, in the midst of possible shelling at any time
Khalid Khroub said that in fact, the attitude of Gazans towards Hamas is also complex. Firstly, since Hamas managed Gaza in 2007, the situation in the Gaza Strip has been deteriorating and becoming increasingly closed. Hamas has failed to provide employment and other services, leaving no hope for people; Secondly, in the widespread struggle for liberation, freedom, and dignity in Palestine, Gazans can only choose Hamas because they firmly resist Israel, Palestinian occupiers, and colonizers. Amidst this complex emotion, Hamas gradually developed within Gaza over the course of 16 years.
Hamas' military power is also constantly growing, having built or acquired a massive rocket arsenal with a range that almost covers the entire Israel. In addition, Hamas has been excavating a huge network of defense tunnels underground in Gaza for many years. Hamas previously claimed that the tunnel system has a large coverage and is widely used, with a length of over 500 kilometers.
According to Israel's plan, the war against Gaza will be divided into three main stages. In the first stage, military operations are carried out through air strikes, followed by ground attacks, with the aim of eliminating agents and damaging infrastructure, thereby defeating and destroying Hamas. In the second stage, after the ground forces enter Gaza, they will take lower intensity actions to eliminate "sporadic resistance forces". In the third stage, a new "security regime" will be established in the Gaza Strip, exempting Israel from its responsibility for daily life in the Strip and creating a new security environment for Israel and its citizens.
In the eyes of Khalid Khroub, Israel's statements about ground incursions are very high-profile, but there are also some signs of reluctance. More importantly, they cannot solve the strategic dilemma of how to eradicate Hamas and what to replace it with. It is difficult to imagine how Israel would "eliminate Hamas". Hamas is not the Islamic State (IS), and even if its military power is severely damaged in this war, the fragmented military factions will spawn new armed groups to continue resisting Israel's occupation.
For both Israel and Hamas, I don't think they have a clear and long-term plan, "Khalid Khroub countered." Even if Israel really succeeds in destroying Hamas, the question everyone faces is, what will happen next
On October 31st local time, Israel launched an air raid on the Jabaliya refugee camp in Gaza. Image/Foreign Media
Netanyahu's apology
Netanyahu hopes to become a hero in the destruction of Hamas, and also hopes to prolong this war as long as possible, in order to divert domestic attention from his judicial reform and corruption allegations, "said Haim Brecht, a professor at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London. But the fact is that after the war, Netanyahu is falling into deeper political difficulties.
A few days after the conflict began, a public opinion survey targeting Israeli Jews was released on October 12th, with 84% of respondents stating that they blame the Israeli political leadership. Up to 94% of respondents said that the Netanyahu government is responsible for the weak defense of southern Israel.
Subsequent polls also showed that if elections were to be held, Netanyahu, his government, and the Likud group would all suffer significant losses. The National Unity Party led by Ganz has significantly increased its support rate.
In such an atmosphere, Netanyahu announced the establishment of a wartime cabinet, with three core members including Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Galant, and the leader of the opposition National Unity Party and former Defense Minister Ganz; There are also two observers, namely the Minister of Strategic Affairs, former Israeli Ambassador to the United States Delmer, and former Chief of Staff of the National Defense Forces, Eisencot.
Netanyahu also has his own considerations for urgently forming a wartime cabinet. The report released by the Arab Center for Applied Social Research points out that Netanyahu is attempting to quell public anger, prevent government collapse, and engage experienced military leadership in the decision-making process to make future military operations more legitimate, as the views of Ganz and Eisencot largely represent Israeli security agencies.
But from the first day of its establishment, this wartime cabinet faced speculation of disagreements among its members. For many years, Ganz has been Netanyahu's biggest political opponent, and he is considered "another Netanyahu". But unlike Netanyahu, who has been in power for many years, Ganz is a political novice. In the 2019 election, Ganz took a liberal stance on social issues. In addition, Ganz also supports the immediate start of negotiations with the Palestinians to seek a diplomatic solution.
The differences between Defense Minister Galant and Netanyahu are also evident. Earlier this year, Galant was fired for publicly criticizing Netanyahu's controversial judicial reforms and was reinstated a month later. There is suspicion from the outside that the trust between the two has not been restored to this day. Israeli media also speculate that the government's high-profile ground attack, which has been "delayed", is mainly due to "significant differences" in the leadership's timetable.
Although Netanyahu insisted that there were no differences in the wartime cabinet, he himself wrote on social media after a press conference on October 28th that he had not received any warning of the Hamas attack on October 7th at any time or stage, which was the deadliest attack on Israeli territory. All security officials are probably scared by Hamas.
This paragraph was fiercely criticized by Ganz and Eisencot. Subsequently, Netanyahu's original post was deleted and an apology statement was issued the following morning.
Another major challenge comes from hostage negotiations. For many years, the Israeli government has designated senior intelligence officials to shoulder this heavy responsibility. When Netanyahu regained power at the end of December last year, the position remained vacant. Not long ago, Netanyahu appointed a new leader, Gal Hershey. Hirsch was criticized for his poor command during the Lebanese War and was forced to resign in 2006.
This appointment has raised doubts. Senior intelligence officials often have extensive experience in conducting secret transactions with terrorist organizations, while Hirsch lacks this experience. Many people believe that his appointment was mainly due to his loyalty to Netanyahu.
A diplomatic official said that Qatar's ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Mohammad Ahmadi, had attempted to contact Hashi, but had not received a response. This also confirms the report by Israeli journalist Shlomi Eldar that Qatar coordinated the release of two hostages by Hamas without the help of Hashi. Hershey's behavior has also attracted criticism from Israeli security agencies, with anonymous defense officials directly telling Israel's Ha'aretz newspaper that Hershey is not suitable for this job.
Netanyahu's handling of the hostage crisis has also caused dissatisfaction among many Israelis. On October 22nd, hundreds of representatives of the hostage's family members silently threatened outside the presidential residence in Jerusalem, demanding that the government find ways to rescue the hostages.
"Israel has experienced severe tests such as the COVID-19, the political crisis of elections, and judicial reform. Against the background of these crises, the events of October 7 caused a large number of Israeli deaths, leaving Israelis facing national trauma." Mel Erlan said.
Former member of the Israeli parliament and director of the Israel Middle East Relations Program at Mitvim University, Kshenia Svetlova, believes that the Gaza war will become the last straw that will crush Netanyahu's long political career. The person who claims to be able to promote peace in Arab countries without the Palestinians will end his career due to another war initiated by the Palestinians
Ansel Pfeiffer also stated, "When the era of Netanyahu in Israel ends, in history and in the hearts of Israel, it will always be associated with this terrible war
Gaza has become a battlefield
More than 2 million civilians in the Gaza Strip are also suffering alongside Israeli hostages and their families. As a new round of fierce attacks begins, Israeli planes have dropped new Arabic flyers over Gaza, warning people in the northern and central regions that "Gaza has become a battlefield". The leaflet reads: 'You must immediately evacuate and transfer to the humanitarian area south of the Gaza River.'
However, satellite radar analysis shows that despite Israel ordering northern residents to flee south, the bombing efforts in southern Gaza have also increased in the past two weeks.
Lebanese caretaker government Prime Minister Najib Mika has stated that the escalation of the Gaza war may lead to chaos in the entire region. The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has raised concerns that Lebanese paramilitary organizations may be involved in the conflict.
According to the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz on October 28th, the second aircraft carrier combat group deployed by the United States in the Mediterranean, the Eisenhower aircraft carrier combat group, has entered the Mediterranean. Iranian Foreign Minister Hussain Amirab Abdullahian has threatened that "if the United States continues to take existing measures, a new front against the United States will be opened up." It is reported that some militia groups have launched at least 19 drone or missile attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq. Iranian President Leahy also accused Israel of "crossing the red line and potentially forcing everyone to take action".
On October 31st, the US official stated through the United Nations that they do not seek conflict with Iran. However, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that if Iran or its agents attack US personnel anywhere, Washington will act quickly and decisively.
On October 30th, the United Nations Security Council made its fifth attempt to intervene in the Gaza conflict. In the previous two weeks, none of the four draft resolutions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict had been approved by the Security Council. Due to serious differences among the 15 member states, the Security Council has been unable to reach agreement on a draft calling for a "humanitarian ceasefire" or "humanitarian pause".
If the peace process had not worked before, it would definitely not be working now, "Ansel Pfeiffer said. We would not expect Jews to immediately embrace those who committed the Holocaust after Germany surrendered. Similarly, it is difficult for Israelis to immediately return to the peace process.
Ansel Pfeiffer said that she still believes in the idea of working hard to achieve the "two country solution", and some Israelis share the same view. But it's hard to imagine that in the coming years or even decades, most Israelis will be able to accept such an idea.
Khalid Khroub believes that right-wing politics have long dominated Israel since the assassination of former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who promoted the Oslo Accords. Since Rabin's assassination, the "two country plan" has been constantly failing, and the world has basically forgotten about the people of Gaza.
