Elon Musk's Shadow Rule
How the US government began to rely on this technology billionaire and is working hard to control him.
We live by his grace, "Pentagon officials said of Musk's role in the Ukrainian war. That's too bad
Last October, Colin Karl, the Pentagon's Deputy Minister for Policy, sat in a hotel in Paris, preparing to call for the avoidance of a disaster in Ukraine. A staff member handed him an iPhone, partly to avoid Carl's extensive use of late night text messages and colorful emoticons on his own phone. After a day of meetings with officials from the UK, France, and Germany, Carl returned to his room, which was covered in thick curtains and overlooking the Eiffel Tower. A senior defense official told me that Carl was surprised by the person he was about to contact: 'He said,' Why am I calling Elon Musk? '
The reason quickly became apparent. Karl told me, "Although Musk is not technically a diplomat or politician, considering his influence on this issue, I believe it is important to treat him as a foreign diplomat or politician." Musk's space exploration company SpaceX has been providing internet access throughout Ukraine for several months, allowing the country's military to plan attacks and defend itself. But in recent days, when the military entered Russia's disputed territory, it was discovered that their network connection had been cut off. More worrisome is that SpaceX recently issued an ultimatum to the Pentagon: if it does not bear the cost of providing services in Ukraine (calculated by the company to be around $400 million per year), it will cut off access services. We started to feel a bit panicked, "recalled one of the four senior defense officials who described the confrontation to me. Musk can close it at any specific moment. This will have a real operational impact on the Ukrainian people
In February 2022, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Musk was embroiled in the Ukrainian War. In addition to conventional attacks, the Kremlin also conducts cyber attacks on Ukraine's digital infrastructure. A loose alliance of Ukrainian officials and technology expatriates gathered ideas in WhatsApp and Signal's group chat and found a potential solution: SpaceX, which produces a series of mobile internet terminals called Starlink. These dish shaped antennas installed on a tripod are the size of a computer monitor and covered in white plastic, reminiscent of the fashionable design of a Musk Tesla electric car, and connected to a satellite network. The scope of these devices is limited, but in this case, this is an advantage: although a nationwide antenna network is required, it is difficult for Russia to completely dismantle Ukraine's connectivity. Of course, Musk can do this. Three people involved in introducing the Star Chain into Ukraine told me that they initially overlooked the importance of Musk's personal control and demanded anonymity because they were concerned that Musk might withdraw his services if he was unhappy. No one had considered this issue at the time, "one of the Ukrainian technology executives told me. "It's all about 'Let's go his mother, people are dying.'"
In the following months, fundraising activities in the Ukrainian community of Silicon Valley, contracts signed with the United States Agency for International Development and European governments, and free donations from SpaceX facilitated the transfer of thousands of star chain devices to Ukraine. A soldier from the Ukrainian communication force is responsible for maintaining satellite link access on the front line. He requested only to reveal his name, Mikola. He told me, "This is an important pillar of communication on the battlefield
Initially, Musk showed unreserved support for Ukraine's cause, and when Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, Mikhail Fedorov, posted pictures of equipment in the field on Twitter, Musk made an encouraging response. But as the war deepened, SpaceX began to hesitate about costs. Last September, SpaceX's government sales director told the Pentagon in a letter: "We cannot further donate terminals to Ukraine, nor can we indefinitely provide funding for existing terminals." (CNBC recently valued SpaceX at nearly $15 billion. Forbes estimated Musk's personal net worth to be $222 billion, making him the world's richest person.)
Musk also became increasingly uneasy about the fact that his technology was being used in war. That month, at a conference in Aspen attended by business and political figures, Musk even seemed to express support for Vladimir Putin. He said on stage, 'We should negotiate. Putin wants peace - we should negotiate peace with Putin,' recalls Reid Hoffman, who co founded PayPal with Musk. He said that Musk seemed to have "bought what Putin was promoting". A week later, Musk released his peace plan proposal on Twitter, calling for a new referendum to redraw Ukraine's borders and grant Russia control over Crimea, a semi autonomous peninsula recognized as part of Ukraine by most countries, including the United States. Territory. In subsequent tweets, Musk described the outcome in favor of Russia as inevitable and attached a map highlighting the territory of eastern Ukraine, some of which he believed "preferred Russia". Musk also conducted an investigation into his Twitter followers regarding the plan. Millions of people responded, with about 60% rejecting the proposal. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky posted his own opinion poll on Twitter, asking users if they prefer to support Ukraine's Elon Musk or Russia's Elon Musk. The former won, but Zelensky's poll had a smaller voter turnout: Musk has over 20 voters supporting him. The number of followers is several times higher.
At that time, Musk's sympathy seemed to have already been reflected on the battlefield. One day, when the Ukrainian army advanced into the disputed area in the south, they suddenly found themselves unable to communicate. We are very close to the front line, "signalman Mikola told me. We crossed the boundary and the star chain stopped working. The consequences were immediate. Communication is disrupted and the unit is isolated. When you attack, especially for commanders, you need continuous information flow from the battalion. Commanders must take the risk of driving to the battlefield to enter radio range, "Mikola said. At that time, it was very chaotic. "Ukrainian expatriates who were raising funds for the Star Chain installation began to receive frantic calls. The technology executive recalled a Ukrainian military officer telling him, 'We need Elon now.' 'What about now?' he replied. "It's like his mother now," the official said. People are dying, "another Ukrainian who participated told me." He was awakened by more than a dozen phone calls saying they lost contact and had to retreat. The Financial Times reported that the power outage affected units in Kherson, Zaporoge, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Lugansk. US and Ukrainian officials told me that they believe SpaceX has cut off connections and blocked access areas through geofencing.
The senior defense official said, "We have held a series of meetings within the Ministry of Defense to try to figure out what we can do about it." Musk's unique role poses unfamiliar challenges, as does the government's role as an intermediary. We cannot hold him accountable for violating the contract or for any other reason, "the official continued. The Pentagon needs to reach a contractual arrangement with SpaceX so that at least Musk "won't wake up one morning and decide, for example, he doesn't want to do it again." Karl added, "This is one way we can lock in services throughout Ukraine. It can at least prevent Musk from completely turning off the switch
Usually, such negotiations will be handled by the procurement department of the Pentagon. But Musk is no longer just a supplier like Boeing, Lockheed, or other defense industry giants. When talking to Musk from Paris on the phone, Carl showed great respect. Based on the unclassified conversation points of this conference call, he thanked Musk for his efforts in Ukraine, acknowledged that he had paid a high price, and pleaded for even a few weeks to develop a contract. If you cut it off, the war won't end, "Carl recalled, telling Musk.
Musk was not immediately convinced. My inference is that Russia is increasingly believing that the involvement of the Star Chain would contribute to the Ukrainian war, and he is nervous about this and is looking for a way to appease Russia's concerns, "Karl told me. To the dismay of Pentagon officials, Musk voluntarily stated that he had personally talked to Putin. Another person told me that Musk made the same statement a few weeks before the release of his pro Russian peace plan tweet, stating that his consultations with the Kremlin are regular. (Musk later denied discussing the Ukrainian issue with Putin.) Over the phone, Musk stated that he was looking at his laptop and could see "the entire war is unfolding" through the Star Chain activity map. Just three minutes ago, he said, 'Okay, I had a pleasant conversation with Putin,' "the senior defense official told me. Our reaction was, 'Oh my goodness, this is not good.' Musk told Carl, stopping at the vivid example of how his technology designed for peaceful purposes was used to wage war.
After a fifteen minute conversation, Musk agreed to give the Pentagon more time. After facing strong public opposition and obvious anger, he also withdrew the threat of cutting off services. Go to hell, "he tweeted. Although Starchain is still losing money, while other companies have received billions of taxpayer funds, we will continue to provide free funding to the Ukrainian government. "In June of this year, the US Department of Defense announced an agreement with SpaceX
The intervention of oligarchs and other monetary interest groups in the fate of the country is not new. During World War I, JPMorgan Chase provided significant funding to the Allies. Subsequently, John D. Rockefeller Jr. injected funds into the fledgling League of Nations. Investor George Soros' Open Society Foundation funded civil society reform in post Soviet Europe, while casino tycoon Sheldon Adelson funded right-wing media in Israel as part of his support for Benjamin Netanyahu.
But Musk's influence is even more brazen and widespread. It is unprecedented for a civilian to become the arbiter of wars between nations in such a meticulous manner, or for the United States to rely on Musk in various fields, from the future of energy and transportation to exploration. The space. Currently, SpaceX is the only way NASA can transport astronauts from the United States to space, and this situation will continue for at least another year. The government's plan to shift the automotive industry towards electric vehicles requires an increase in the number of charging stations along highways in the United States. But it depends on the actions of another Musk company, Tesla. This automaker has established proprietary charging stations in most parts of the country, to the extent that the Biden government relaxed its early push for universal charging standards that Musk did not like. As long as Tesla makes it compatible with other charging standards, its charging station is eligible for billions of dollars in subsidies.
In the past two decades, against the backdrop of dilapidated infrastructure and declining institutional trust, Musk has been seeking business opportunities in key areas where the country has gradually withdrawn after decades of privatization. The government now relies on him, but it is difficult to deal with his adventurous behavior, brinkmanship, and capriciousness. Current and former officials from NASA, the Department of Defense, the Department of Transportation, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration have told me that Musk's influence has become inevitable in their work, and some of them have stated that they now treat him like an unelected official. A spokesperson for the Pentagon said he would keep Musk informed of my inquiries about his role in Ukraine and would only give an official interview on this matter with Musk's permission. If Elon is willing, we will talk to you, "he told me. In a podcast interview last year, Musk was asked if he had greater influence than the US government. He immediately replied, "In some ways," Ridhoffman told me, Musk's attitude was "like Louis XIV: 'L' é tat, c 'est moi.'
Musk's power continued to grow. He acquired Twitter and renamed it "X", which provided him with an important political discourse forum before the next presidential election. He recently established an artificial intelligence company, which is his move after years of involvement in this technology. Musk has become a highly exposed pop culture figure, with his sharp transformation from selflessness to vanity, from strategy to impulsiveness, becoming the subject of countless articles and at least seven major books, including Walter Isaacson's upcoming biography. But the nature and scope of his power are not yet well known.
Musk's over thirty current and former colleagues in various industries, as well as a dozen individuals in his personal life, told me about their experiences with him. Sam Altman, CEO Musk, has collaborated and argued with OpenAI before. He told me, "Elon urgently hopes that the world can be saved. But the premise is that he can become the person who saves it
The terms of the Star Chain transaction have not been publicly disclosed. Ukrainian officials have stated that they are not facing further service interruptions. But Musk continued to express contradictions about how to use the technology and where to deploy it. In February, he wrote on Twitter: "We will not escalate the conflict, leading to World War III." He said, as he told Carl, he sincerely attempted to solve the moral dilemma in his character: "We are striving to do the right thing, and 'the right thing' is an extremely difficult moral issue
Musk's hesitation is in line with his pragmatic interests. A factory in Shanghai produces half of Tesla cars, and Musk relies on the goodwill of Chinese officials to provide support to Russia during the conflict. Musk recently admitted to the Financial Times that Beijing did not agree with his decision to provide internet services to Ukraine and sought assurance that he would not deploy similar technologies in China. In the same interview, he answered a question about China maintaining control over Taiwan by proposing another peace plan. He suggested that Taiwan could become a jointly controlled administrative region, and Taiwan's leaders believed that this result ended the country's independence. During his visit to Beijing this spring, Musk received what Reuters described as a "flattery and feast" welcome. He met with senior officials, including the Chinese Foreign Minister, and presented various official photos with awkward smiles, which are more common among world leaders.
The national security officials I interviewed have various views on the balance of power between the government and Musk. He maintains good relationships with some of them, including General Mark Miley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Miley told me that since Miley met as the Army Chief of Staff a few years ago, they have been discussing the application of technology in warfare - artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and autonomous machines. His insight helped me form ideas about the fundamental changes in the nature of war and the modernization of the US military. During the Star Chain controversy, Musk called him for advice. But other officials expressed deep doubts. A Pentagon official told me, "Living in the world we live in, Elon runs this company, a private enterprise under his control, and we rely on his grace to make a living
2) Musk's Shadow Rule
On a summer evening in the mid-1980s, Musk and his friend Theo Taoushiani drove his father's car illegally. Musk and Taoshani are both in their teens and live in the suburbs of Johannesburg, South Africa, one mile apart. Both of them did not have a driver's license or permission from Toshiani's father. But they are enthusiastic fans of Dungeons and Dragons, and a new module - a new scene in the game - has just been released. Taoshani drives 20 minutes to the Thornton City Shopping Center. Elon is my co pilot, "Taushani told me. We left under the cover of darkness. "When they arrived at the mall, they found that there was not enough money. But Musk promised the salesperson that they would come back the next day with the remaining items and gave up the name of a famous Greek restaurant owned by the Toshiani family. Elon has a gift for being able to speak, "Taushani said. He is very persuasive, and his determination is also very tenacious. "The two of them took the module home.
Musk was born in the administrative capital of the country, Pretoria, in 1971. He grew up under racial segregation with his younger brother Kinbar and sister Tosca. Musk's mother Maye is a Canadian model and nutritionist, and his father Errol is an engineer. Musk divorced when he was young, and the children initially lived with Maye. She said that Erol physically abused her. When the children are nearby, he will hit me, "she wrote in her memoir. I remember Tosca and Kinbar were two years old and four years old, respectively. They would cry in the corner, and five year old Elon would hit him behind the knee to try to stop him. In the mid-1980s, Musk moved in with his father, and he said this decision was due to concerns about his father's loneliness, which he regretted. Musk usually has no expression when interviewed, but when he tells Rolling Stone magazine about the next few years, he openly cries. He said that over the years, his father has been psychologically tormenting him, but he refuses to disclose the specific way. You don't know how bad it is, "he said. He has committed almost all the crimes you can think of. He has done almost all the evil things you can think of, "Taushani recalled witnessing Erol" often scolding Elon ". Perhaps it's belittling him (Erol Musk denied allegations of abusing Mayer or his children.) Musk also stated that he was subjected to violent bullying at school. Although he is currently six feet an inch tall and has broad shoulders, he was "much smaller in school," Toshiani told me. He's not very social
Musk once stated that he suffers from Asperger's syndrome, a form of autism spectrum disorder now known as difficulty interacting socially. When he was young, he sometimes fell into a trance of contemplation, during which he became slow to react, to the extent that his mother ultimately took him to see a doctor to check his hearing. Musk's quiet side still exists - in my interaction with him, I found him thoughtful and measured. (Musk refused to answer the questions in this report.) As he joked in his monologue on Saturday Night Live, he was "very skilled at running humans in simulated mode.
Musk escaped into science fiction and video games. One of the reasons I entered the technology industry may be video games, "he said at a gaming industry conference a few years ago. When he was in his teens, Musk wrote an eight bit shooter game called Blastar in the style of a space invader, whose title screen referred to him in a novel like manner as "E. R. Musk." The premise was basic: "Mission: Destroy an alien cargo ship carrying lethal hydrogen bombs and state beam machines." But it won recognition from a South African trade magazine, which published 167 lines of code for the game, And paid a small sum of money to Musk.
Musk often talks about the influence of his science fiction novels. Some of them are expressed in a straightforward way: he links his love for Isaac Asimov's "Base" novel with his obsession with ensuring the survival of humans beyond Earth, and the characters in the novel strive to mathematically accurately predict the collapse of their civilization. But some of Musk's touchstones are quite ironic. He once said that his hero was Douglas Adams, a writer who satirized the spirit of progress at all costs embodied by the super rich and Musk. In Musk's childhood novel and radio drama "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" aired in South Africa, a narcissistic playboy becomes the president of the galaxy, and Earth is demolished to make way for space transportation routes. Musk is also a loyal fan of "Breaking Out", a role-playing first person shooter game. He mentioned this game when discussing his company Neuralink, which is eager to invent body modification techniques that enhance abilities like in the game. During the pandemic, Musk seemed to accept the COVID-19 denial. For a while, he changed his Twitter profile image to the image of the game's protagonist, which triggered an artificial plague aimed at controlling the public. But "Breaking Out of the Siege" and "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" are fundamentally anti capitalist texts, where the plague is the pinnacle of unrestricted corporate power, while the villain is the world's richest and media darling technology entrepreneur. Global aspirations and political leaders under his control.
In 1999, Musk stood outside his home in the Bay Area, accepting the delivery of a million dollar McLaren F1 sports car. He is in his twenties and wearing an oversized brown suit jacket. Some people may view purchasing this car as a behavioral characteristic of imperialist boys, "he told CNN news staff. Then he smiled and said, there are only about sixty such cars in the world. My values may have changed, "he added," but I didn't realize that my values had changed. "Musk's fianc é e and Canadian writer Justine Wilson seemed to be more aware of this. This is a car worth millions of dollars. It's decadent, "she said. I'm worried that we'll become spoiled children. We've lost our appreciation and vision, "she commented, stating that McLaren is" the perfect car in Silicon Valley.
Musk moved to Canada in his teens and met Wilson while they were both studying at Queen's University in Ontario. Later, he transferred to the University of Pennsylvania and obtained degrees in economics and physics. In 1995, when the World Wide Web was born, he and Kimbal founded a company called Zip2, which was an online city catalog they sold to newspapers. Musk often describes the humble origins of the company, stating that he and his brother live and work in a small single room apartment and bathe in a nearby YMCA. And eat at Jack in the Box. (Erol once gave his sons 28000 dollars. Musk tends to make a fuss about credit issues, stating that his father's donation only appeared "a long time later" and "would have happened" in a round of financing, regardless.) In Zip2, Musk developed what he called a "hardcore" work style; Even after owning his own apartment, he often sleeps on the bean bags in the office. But in the end, the company's investors stripped him of his leadership position and appointed a more experienced CEO. Musk believes that this startup should not only target newspapers, but also consumers. On the contrary, investors are pursuing a more moderate vision. In 1999, Zip2 was sold to Compaq for $307 million, earning Musk over $20 million.
Justin and Musk got married the following year. Their first child died of sudden infant death syndrome ten weeks later, and the couple handled this tragedy in a completely different way. According to Justin, she openly expressed sadness. Musk later told one of his biographers, Ashlee Vance, "Being immersed in sadness is not good for the people around you." After pursuing I.V.F. treatment, the couple gave birth to twins, then triplets. (Musk now has at least nine children with three different women and says he is doing his part to address one of his biggest concerns, namely the risk of population collapse; demographers are skeptical about this matter.) Justin wrote in an article in "Jia Ren" magazine that their relationship ultimately collapsed under the weight of Musk's obsession with work and his tendency to control, This started when he insisted on saying 'I am the alpha in this relationship' while dancing at the wedding. Subsequently, a chaotic divorce occurred, leading to a legal dispute over the financial agreement after marriage, which was resolved years later. He grew up in a male dominated culture in South Africa, "Justin wrote. The competition and dominant will that enabled him to achieve such success in business did not magically disappear after he returned home. (Musk responded to Justin's account in Business Insider, discussing financial disputes, but he did not mention Justin's description of his behavior.)
After leaving Zip2, Musk invested approximately $12 million (most of his wealth) into another startup, an online bank called X.com. This is his first obsession with the letter "X", which has now appeared in the names of his company, products, and his son with artist Grimes: X Æ A-12. The bank also marks the beginning of a long and yet unfulfilled exploration - recently restarted in his efforts to reshape Twitter - to create a "everything application" that includes payment systems. In 2000, X.com merged with another online payment startup, Infinity, co founded by entrepreneur Peter Thiel. The competition between Musk and Tell for control of the company later became a legend in Silicon Valley. The allocation of responsibilities varies among different accounts. Hoffman cites this story as an example of Musk's dishonesty, telling me that Musk pushed for a merger by emphasizing the leadership of an experienced executive in the company, only to force him to step down and take on the highest position. Hoffman said, "A merger like this is a marriage." "It's like, 'I lied to you while we were dating. Now that we're married, let me tell you about herpes.' People who have worked with Musk often describe him as having a strong desire for control. One person stated that "in the field he wants to compete in, it's difficult for him to become the center of attention or not to become the center of attention." In the autumn of 2000, another coup occurred during Musk's long delayed honeymoon with Justin, overthrowing Musk and appointing Thiel as the company's head. Two years later, eBay acquired the company named PayPal for $1.5 billion, making Musk, who was still the largest shareholder, exceptionally wealthy.
Perhaps the most inspiring moment in the PayPal legend occurred at its beginning. In March 2000, while the merger was underway, Musk was driving his new McLaren, with Tyr in the passenger seat. The Sha Shan Road where the two are located is a major artery that crosses Silicon Valley. Tyr asked Musk, "So what can this do?" Musk replied, "Pay attention to this." Then he stepped on the gas pedal, hit the embankment, the car flew into the air and spun, then hit the sidewalk heavily, and the suspension and windows were blown up. There's no insurance here, "Musk told Thiel. Musk's critics use this story to illustrate his reckless display behavior, but it also emphasizes that Musk often receives rewards for this behavior: he repaired the McLaren, drove it for a few more years, and then reportedly sold it for profit. Musk is happy to tell this story and has been risking his life. In an interview, when asked if there were any similarities in his method of creating the company, Musk said, "I hope not." He seemed to be considering the idea and added, "Pay attention to this. Yes, rocket launches may be awkward
Among all Musk's businesses, SpaceX may be the most fundamentally reflecting his risk appetite. In December 2020, the staff of SpaceX's starship factory in Boca Chica, Texas spent a lot of time preparing to launch a rocket called SN8, the latest prototype of the company's starship program, hoping to eventually put humans into orbit, land on the moon, and, in the Mars mission that Musk was most passionate about. The Federal Aviation Administration of the United States has approved the initial launch date of the rocket. But engine issues forced SpaceX to delay for a day. At that time, the weather had already changed. On a new day, the Federal Aviation Administration (F.A.A.) SpaceX stated that based on its wind speed and direction model, if a rocket explodes, there may be an explosion wave that could damage nearby house windows. Subsequently, a series of tense meetings were held, and SpaceX presented its own model to prove that the launch was safe, while F.A.A. refused to grant permission. Wayne Monteith, who was then the head of the agency's space department, received a phone call from Musk while leaving an event at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, and his mood was very depressed. Listen, you can't launch, "Montice told him. You haven't obtained the launch permit yet, "Musk admitted to the order.
Anyway, when SpaceX was launched, Musk was on site at Boca Chicago. The rocket took off and successfully conducted several exercises aimed at rehearsing the final manned interstellar spacecraft. However, during landing, SN8 entered too fast and exploded during impact. The next day, Musk visited the crash site. In a photo taken on the same day, Musk stood next to the twisted steel of the rocket, wearing a black T-shirt and jeans, arms crossed, squinting his eyes, and a firm expression. His tweets about the explosion were celebratory, not apologetic. He has a long history of launching and blowing up rockets. Then he released videos of all the rockets he blew up. Just like half of Americans think it's really cool, "former NASA director Jim Bridenstein told me. He has a different set of rules
Hans Koenigsmann, then SpaceX's Vice President for Flight Reliability, began submitting a routine report to F.A.A. Regarding emission. Konigsmann told me that he felt pressure and needed to minimize attention to the launch process and Musk's role in it. I feel like he wants to take it off, "Konigsmann said. I don't agree, we ended up with a version that was very different from what we initially expected. In the end, Koenigsman was told not to write a report at all and sent a letter to the Federal Aviation Administration of the United States. On the contrary. At the same time, the agency launched its own investigation. Montice told me that he agrees with Musk's view that the Federal Aviation Administration (F.A.A.) has always been conservative about situations where the risk of statistically causing casualties is minimal, but he still feels uneasy. Our security personnel were very uneasy about this, "Montis recalled. In a series of letters to SpaceX, Montis accused the company of relying on "hastily developed data to meet the launch window", "launching based on 'impressions' and' assumptions', and showing" a lack of operational controls and processes that are worrying ". Discipline that is inconsistent with a strong safety culture In response, SpaceX proposed various security reforms, but also countered, complaining that F.A.A.'s weather model was unreliable and suggesting that the agency had consistently refused to discuss improving the model. (SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.)
